A Symposium on Labour Force Participation in Canada in the 1990s

A Symposium on Labour Force Participation in Canada in the 1990s

Canadian Business Economics, Volume 7, Number 2, May 1999

Edited by Andrew Sharpe and Louis Grignon

   A major development in the Canadian labour market in the 1990s has been the decline in labor force participation. This unexpected development has had important implications for the standard of living of Canadians and the conduct of macroeconomic policy. This issue of Canadian Business Economics consists of a symposium on labour force participation in Canada in the 1990s. The idea for this symposium came out of a December 1997 workshop on labour force participation organized by the Canadian Employment Research Forum. The Centre for the Study of Living Standards and Human Resources Development Canada then organized two sessions on declining labour force participation at the annual meeting of the Canadian Economics Association in May 1998 where these papers were first presented. The papers were then refereed and revised for publication.

   After peaking at 67.5 per cent in 1989, the aggregate participation rate of the population 15 and over fell continually during the first seven years of the 1990s to a trough of 64.8 per cent in 1997. The articles in this symposium attempt to explain this 2.7 percentage points decline in labour force participation.

   The papers identify both structural and cyclical factors contributing the decline in participation in the 1990s. The pace of participation rate increases in the 1970s and 1980s was unsustainable in the 1990s, due to the structural factors highlighted below.

  • The leveling of cohorts effects reflecting the narrowing of the gap between male and female participation rates meant that the large increases in female participation experienced in the 1970s and 1980s was no longer possible;
  • The rising school enrolment rate, reflecting the increased recognition of education for labour market success, acted to reduced the youth participation rate;
  • The changing demographic composition of the population, and in particular the growth in the share of the population 65 and over, reduced the aggregate participation rate.

   This issue of Canadian Business Economics will be of interest to all persons following current labour market developments in Canada.

   Andrew Sharpe is Executive Director of the Centre for the Study of Living Standards in Ottawa.
   Louis Grignon is Director, Employment Growth and Unemployment Studies in the Applied Research Branch of Human Resources Development Canada.


Table of Contents

Andrew Sharpe and Louis Grignon Symposium on Labour Force Participation in Canada in the 1990s: An Introduction and Overview  144Kb 1

Mario Fortin and Pierre Fortin The Changing Labour Force Participation of Canadians, 1969-96: Evidence from a Panel of Six Demographic Groups  209Kb

12

Irene Ip, Sheryl King and Geneviève Verdier Structural Influences on Participation Rates: A Canada-U.S. Comparison  260Kb

25

Bob Dugan and Benoît Robidoux Demographic Shifts and Labour Force Participation Rates in Canada  220Kb

42

Paul Beaudry and Thomas Lemieux Evolution of the Female Labour Force Participation Rate in Canada, 1976-1994: a Cohort Analysis  206Kb

57

Richard Archambault and Louis Grignon Decline in Youth Participation in Canada in the 1990s: Structural or Cyclical?  211Kb

71


List of Contributors

Richard Archambault is an economist, Employment Growth and Unemployment Studies in the Applied Research Branch of Human Resources Development Canada.
Paul Beaudry teaches in the Department of Economics at the University of British Columbia and is a Research Associate with CIRANO (beaudry@econ.ubc.ca).
Bob Dugan is a senior economist at WEFA Inc. (bob.dugan@wefa.com).
Mario Fortin teaches in the Department of Economics at the Université de Sherbooke.
Pierre Fortin teaches in the Department of Economics at the Université du Québec à Montréal and is a Research Associate with the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (pierre.fortin@uqam.ca).
Irene Ip is a Research Advisor in the Research Department at the Bank of Canada (irene.ip@bank-banque-canada.ca).
Sheryl King is an analyst in the Financial Market Department at the Bank of Canada.
Thomas Lemieux teaches in the Department of Economics at the Université de Montreal and is a Research Associate with CIRANO.
Benoît Robidoux is Acting Senior Chief, Economic Forecasting in the Economic Forecasting Division at Finance Canada (robidoux.benoit@fin.gc.ca).
Geneviève Verdier is a doctoral student at the University of British Columbia.

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